When I came across this thread, I had to stop for a moment and read through it again. Over the past weekend I posted an article on WatchtowerWatch.com that touched on this very subject.
I'd spoken to one of my contacts earlier last week. He has been a JW for most of his adult life and has been an elder for many years. He stays in, as he says, "mostly for entertainment," but also because his wife does not want to make their break until after her mother passes - which should be relatively soon. He told me, "As soon as the old lady is gone, so will we be. We may not even say good-bye, just stop going and let everyone wonder what happened to us. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before someone at the Kingdom Hall actually calls and asks, 'Where are you guys?'"
It was our conversation that led me to write the aforementioned article: http://watchtowerwatch.com/blog/why-are-you-still-a-jehovahs-witness
Anyway, as I was reading the comments by BU2B, doinmypart, and rjharris, I kept thinking - geez, I wonder if any of them read my article? We are all on the same page. My contact told me that in his circuit in the Pacific Northwest congregations are losing an average of 5-6 publishers over 18 every six months. He told me that most of the elders are getting nervous, thinking the CO is going to hold them personally responsible. One issue that comes up in almost every discussion connected with a judicial committee meeting is "if we DF this person, that means we will lose another publisher. Anyone know of any new studies that are about to get baptized to replace this loss?"
He also told me that you can see the exhaustion of the elders as they try to keep things together. He said one good thing coming out of these losses is that elder bodies may realize that they will need to take a more accomodating attitude toward some of their flock, especially those who are just asking questions, but have not committed any "sins" - especially those not involving porneia. Problem is that several young people brought before the committee recently have taken the attitude, "do what you gotta do, I don't give a shit." His point is that when they are willing to verbalize their contempt, then you've probably already lost them - maybe not this week, but in a few months they will be gone on their own.
He told me that in one congregation an elder was demoted back to MS - because he acted "like an "f-ing Nazi." He said the CO made a special trip to the KH just to give this one elder a dressing down, "and it began almost before they got inside the conference room."
My contact agrees with sir82. The Watchtower may hope to have a hard core group of JWs who they know will (1) never leave, no matter what, and (2) keep sending money and doing what they are told, because (3) they want to have a home just to exert their authority over others.
JV